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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

IND
35.2%
MIN
64.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIN: Sam Darnold (MIN) +0.097 vs Joe Flacco (IND) -0.019 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

Bernhard Raimann T Out Concussion
Kwity Paye DE Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Blake Cashman LB Out Toe
Taki Taimani DT Out Ankle
Dalton Risner G Questionable Back
Akayleb Evans CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 13
–
MIN 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:06 TD IND (11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – MIN 0
  • Q3 10:28 TD MIN (10:28) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – MIN 6
  • Q3 02:53 TD MIN (2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 83-J.Nailor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. IND 7 – MIN 13
  • Q4 12:45 FG IND (12:45) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – MIN 14
  • Q4 02:09 TD MIN (2:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – MIN 20
  • Q4 00:33 FG IND (:33) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – MIN 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 4-B.Powell to MIN 24 for 15 yards (31-T.Goodson).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 51%

    (:23) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%

    (7:59) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to IND 42 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 73%

    (5:50) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 73%

    (2:00) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:17) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 51%

    (8:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (12:45) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 19 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 41%

    (9:31) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to IND 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Downs to IND 21 for 12 yards (6-B.Asamoah; 42-A.DePaola).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 61%

    (5:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 16-A.Dulin (2-S.Gilmore) [52-Ji.Ward].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 1-J.Downs to IND 41 for 14 yards (7-B.Murphy).