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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model