4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to IND 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Downs to IND 21 for 12 yards (6-B.Asamoah; 42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model