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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 4-B.Powell to MIN 24 for 15 yards (31-T.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model