Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(14:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model