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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown (6-D.Savage).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model