JAX @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Philadelphia Eagles

6-2 HC Nick Sirianni

Sunday 2024-11-03 · 16:05 ET Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

JAX

32.3%

PHI

67.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

PHI offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
JAX defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
JAX offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts
PHI defense: +0.000 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22 15–29

–

PHI 26 19–33

Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

JAX

Ezra Cleveland G Out Ankle

Christian Kirk WR Out Collarbone

Maason Smith DT Out Ankle

Keilan Robinson RB Questionable Toe

Tank Bigsby RB Questionable Ankle

Gabe Davis WR Questionable Shoulder

Travis Etienne RB Questionable Hamstring

Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee

Brian Thomas WR Questionable Chest

Andrew Wingard S Questionable Knee

PHI

Dallas Goedert TE Out Hamstring

Darius Slay CB Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 23

–

PHI 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:28 TD PHI (10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – PHI 6
Q2 09:24 FG PHI (9:24) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. JAX 0 – PHI 10
Q2 00:28 TD PHI (:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – PHI 16
Q3 09:31 TD PHI (9:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI-74-F.Johnson was injured during the play. PENALTY on JAX-5-A.Cisco, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. JAX 0 – PHI 22
Q3 05:30 TD JAX (5:30) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – PHI 22
Q3 05:26 TD JAX (5:26) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 34 for 4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 35. 44-T.Walker for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PHI-74-F.Johnson has returned to the game. JAX 14 – PHI 22
Q4 07:49 TD PHI (7:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – PHI 28
Q4 04:09 TD JAX (4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – PHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(11:20) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 15 for 1 yard (21-S.Brown). FUMBLES (21-S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI-22-K.Ringo at JAX 20. 22-K.Ringo to JAX 20 for no gain (56-Y.Abdullah).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(6:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(4:16) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to JAX 35, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 41 for 6 yards (28-W.Shipley).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 45%

(3:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

(9:24) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72%

(7:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram (33-C.DeJean, 55-B.Graham).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 22

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 90%

(4:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown (6-D.Savage).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(3:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:53) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to JAX 29, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 33 for 4 yards (22-K.Ringo).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 48%

(13:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 25

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%

(1:25) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

(12:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

(5:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to PHI 28 for 16 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 39 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 59%

(2:16) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown →

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