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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 16:05 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

JAX
34.1%
PHI
65.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

JAX

Ezra Cleveland G Out Ankle
Christian Kirk WR Out Collarbone
Maason Smith DT Out Ankle
Keilan Robinson RB Questionable Toe
Tank Bigsby RB Questionable Ankle
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Shoulder
Travis Etienne RB Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee
Brian Thomas WR Questionable Chest
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Knee

PHI

Dallas Goedert TE Out Hamstring
Darius Slay CB Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 23
–
PHI 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:28 TD PHI (10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 09:24 FG PHI (9:24) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. JAX 0 – PHI 10
  • Q2 00:28 TD PHI (:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – PHI 16
  • Q3 09:31 TD PHI (9:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI-74-F.Johnson was injured during the play. PENALTY on JAX-5-A.Cisco, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. JAX 0 – PHI 22
  • Q3 05:30 TD JAX (5:30) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – PHI 22
  • Q3 05:26 TD JAX (5:26) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 34 for 4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 35. 44-T.Walker for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PHI-74-F.Johnson has returned to the game. JAX 14 – PHI 22
  • Q4 07:49 TD PHI (7:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – PHI 28
  • Q4 04:09 TD JAX (4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – PHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:20) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 15 for 1 yard (21-S.Brown). FUMBLES (21-S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI-22-K.Ringo at JAX 20. 22-K.Ringo to JAX 20 for no gain (56-Y.Abdullah).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:16) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to JAX 35, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 41 for 6 yards (28-W.Shipley).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (9:24) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram (33-C.DeJean, 55-B.Graham).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 90%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown (6-D.Savage).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:53) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to JAX 29, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 33 for 4 yards (22-K.Ringo).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%

    (1:25) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

    (12:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to PHI 28 for 16 yards (34-I.Rodgers).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 39 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 59%

    (2:16) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.