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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model