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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP