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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to PHI 28 for 16 yards (34-I.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model