4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.65 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model