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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to JAX 35, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 41 for 6 yards (28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model