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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP