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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CLE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -3.37 EP
KICK -2.30 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.31 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model