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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LAC
49.7%
CLE
50.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 20
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LAC

Kristian Fulton CB Out Hamstring
Brenden Rice WR Out Shoulder
Stone Smartt TE Doubtful Ankle
D.J. Chark WR Questionable Groin
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hip
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Toe

CLE

Jordan Hicks LB Out Elbow
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Out Neck
Khaleke Hudson LB Questionable Ankle
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 27
–
CLE 10

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:54 TD LAC (6:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 09:33 FG CLE (9:33) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. LAC 7 – CLE 3
  • Q2 08:10 TD LAC (8:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 03:34 TD LAC (3:34) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – CLE 3
  • Q4 04:21 TD LAC (4:21) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – CLE 3
  • Q4 00:49 TD CLE (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Tillman (20-C.Hart). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep left to 19-C.Tillman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – CLE 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%

    (13:51) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CLE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to LAC 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Davis to CLE 30 for 53 yards (39-K.Hudson).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LAC 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:23) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to CLE 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 44 for 5 yards (28-H.Haskins).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (9:33) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:27) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to LAC 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 11 yards (59-W.Reid).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LAC 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston to CLE 33 for 26 yards. Lateral to 5-J.Palmer to CLE 24 for 9 yards. Lateral to 15-L.McConkey to CLE 30 for -6 yards. Lateral to 27-J.Dobbins to CLE 20 for 10 yards (23-M.Emerson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (7:43) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to LAC 4 for 2 yards (43-T.Dye).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:59) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%

    (5:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:05) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 43 for 10 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to CLE 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 19 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 37%

    (14:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 24-N.Chubb to 50 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (11:41) 11-C.Dicker 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:27) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to CLE 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 22 for 11 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). LAC-87-S.Fehoko was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 71%

    (6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Tart), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, recovered by CLE-7-D.Hopkins at CLE 46.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end to CLE 42 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).