Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- LAC offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.018 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 9
LAC
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:54 TD LAC (6:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – CLE 0
- Q2 09:33 FG CLE (9:33) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. LAC 7 – CLE 3
- Q2 08:10 TD LAC (8:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – CLE 3
- Q2 03:34 TD LAC (3:34) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – CLE 3
- Q4 04:21 TD LAC (4:21) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – CLE 3
- Q4 00:49 TD CLE (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Tillman (20-C.Hart). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep left to 19-C.Tillman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – CLE 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%
(13:51) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CLE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to LAC 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Davis to CLE 30 for 53 yards (39-K.Hudson).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LAC 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:23) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to CLE 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 44 for 5 yards (28-H.Haskins).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(1:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%
(9:33) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:27) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to LAC 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 11 yards (59-W.Reid).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LAC 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 59Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 28%
(:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston to CLE 33 for 26 yards. Lateral to 5-J.Palmer to CLE 24 for 9 yards. Lateral to 15-L.McConkey to CLE 30 for -6 yards. Lateral to 27-J.Dobbins to CLE 20 for 10 yards (23-M.Emerson).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%
(7:43) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to LAC 4 for 2 yards (43-T.Dye).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:59) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%
(5:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:05) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 43 for 10 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to CLE 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 19 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 37%
(14:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 24-N.Chubb to 50 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%
(11:41) 11-C.Dicker 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:27) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to CLE 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 22 for 11 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). LAC-87-S.Fehoko was injured during the play.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 71%
(6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Tart), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, recovered by CLE-7-D.Hopkins at CLE 46.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end to CLE 42 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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