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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LAC 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model