Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston to CLE 33 for 26 yards. Lateral to 5-J.Palmer to CLE 24 for 9 yards. Lateral to 15-L.McConkey to CLE 30 for -6 yards. Lateral to 27-J.Dobbins to CLE 20 for 10 yards (23-M.Emerson).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.16 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -1.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP