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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 84

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 43 for 10 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model