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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to CLE 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 19 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model