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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 24-N.Chubb to 50 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model