4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 11-C.Dicker 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model