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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Tart), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, recovered by CLE-7-D.Hopkins at CLE 46.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model