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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model