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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

LV
23.9%
CIN
76.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.199 vs Gardner Minshew (LV) -0.098 EPA/dropback (LV starting Gardner Minshew in place of Aidan O'Connell)
  • CIN defense: +0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
CIN 28
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LV

Andre James C Out Ankle
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Knee
Zamir White RB Questionable Quadricep
Dylan Parham G Questionable Foot

CIN

Orlando Brown T Doubtful Knee
Tee Higgins WR Doubtful Quadricep
Zack Moss RB Doubtful Neck
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Groin
Geno Stone S Questionable Shin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 24
–
CIN 41

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:38 TD LV (9:38) 3-Z.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 01:46 TD CIN (1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 07:04 FG CIN (7:04) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. LV 7 – CIN 10
  • Q2 03:03 FG LV (3:03) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:38 TD CIN (:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – CIN 16
  • Q3 11:33 TD CIN (11:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 89-D.Sample for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – CIN 23
  • Q3 07:40 TD CIN (7:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – CIN 30
  • Q4 13:23 TD LV (13:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at CIN 29. 18-J.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – CIN 31
  • Q4 05:45 TD CIN (5:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 17 – CIN 37
  • Q4 01:57 FG CIN (1:57) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. LV 17 – CIN 41
  • Q4 00:48 TD LV (:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 23 – CIN 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to LV 9 for 11 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 26%

    (13:35) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to CIN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (7:04) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

    (3:03) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (:17) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to CIN 4, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-43-K.Mauga. PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at CIN 4.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:47) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CIN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 18 for 8 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer, 25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on LV-45-T.Eichenberg, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 18.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:12) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to LV 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-D.Turner to LV 26 for 6 yards (87-T.Hudson).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:26) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to CIN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 13 yards (45-T.Eichenberg, 50-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:13) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback. Cincinnati challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:20) 6-A.Cole punts 70 yards to CIN 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 20 for 5 yards (53-A.Gainer; 45-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to LV 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-D.Turner to LV 33 for 24 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 27-J.Battle).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 66%

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep left to 16-J.Meyers [58-J.Ossai].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (1:57) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.