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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:17) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to CIN 4, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-43-K.Mauga. PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at CIN 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 52, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model