Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CIN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 18 for 8 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer, 25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on LV-45-T.Eichenberg, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model