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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to LV 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-D.Turner to LV 26 for 6 yards (87-T.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model