Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback. Cincinnati challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.34 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model