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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 6-A.Cole punts 70 yards to CIN 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 20 for 5 yards (53-A.Gainer; 45-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 43, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model