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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep left to 16-J.Meyers [58-J.Ossai].

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP