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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to LV 9 for 11 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.08 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model