Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 6 – Carolina Panthers 0

(14:57) 43-M.Hayball punts 30 yards to NO 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.42 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model