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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NO
70.8%
CAR
29.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.316 vs Derek Carr (NO) +0.154 EPA/dropback (NO starting Derek Carr in place of Spencer Rattler)
  • CAR offense: -0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 26
–
CAR 18
Projected margin: NO by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NO

Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Out Hamstring
Bub Means WR Out Ankle
Kendre Miller RB Out Hamstring
Jamaal Williams RB Doubtful Groin
Rico Payton CB Questionable Back
Shane Lemieux G Questionable Knee
Nephi Sewell LB Questionable Knee
John Ridgeway DT Questionable Oblique
Nick Saldiveri G Questionable Shoulder

CAR

Ikem Ekwonu T Out Ankle
Feleipe Franks TE Out Concussion
Jammie Robinson S Out Knee
Adam Thielen WR Doubtful Hamstring
Jaden Crumedy DT Doubtful Ankle
Jordan Fuller S Doubtful Hamstring
Jonathon Brooks RB Questionable Knee
Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Back
D.J. Wonnum LB Questionable Quadricep
D.J. Johnson LB Questionable Ankle
Xavier Legette WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 22
–
CAR 23

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 FG NO (10:54) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 03:11 FG NO (3:11) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 10:03 TD CAR (10:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – CAR 6
  • Q2 04:18 TD NO (4:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – CAR 7
  • Q2 00:42 FG CAR (:42) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 13 – CAR 10
  • Q3 09:59 TD CAR (9:59) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – CAR 16
  • Q3 04:20 FG NO (4:20) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 16 – CAR 17
  • Q4 12:02 TD NO (12:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 22 – CAR 17
  • Q4 02:24 TD CAR (2:24) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 22 – CAR 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (10:54) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (3:11) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 42%

    (:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:57) 43-M.Hayball punts 30 yards to NO 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 37%

    (1:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:29) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to CAR 43, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.Blackshear to NO 43 for 14 yards (49-Z.Wood, 85-D.Holker). PENALTY on NO-6-W.Gay, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 43.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 79%

    (:42) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:42) (Punt formation) 43-M.Hayball left end pushed ob at 50 for 11 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 53%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle to CAR 38 for 3 yards (99-S.Tuttle; 91-N.Thurman).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (4:20) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to NO 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:48) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Jackson to NO 37 for 8 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 41-J.Windmon). PENALTY on NO-30-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 36.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:39) 43-M.Hayball punts 50 yards to CAR 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 36 for 10 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).