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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model