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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:42) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model