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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 13 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:42) (Punt formation) 43-M.Hayball left end pushed ob at 50 for 11 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model