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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP