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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 13 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle to CAR 38 for 3 yards (99-S.Tuttle; 91-N.Thurman).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.02 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.04 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.51 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model