Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 16

(2:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to NO 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.62 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model