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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 22 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -0.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model