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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP