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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model