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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
55.8%
NO
44.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Derek Carr (NO) +0.170 vs Kirk Cousins (ATL) +0.178 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 26
–
NO 23
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

J.D. Bertrand LB Out Concussion
Drew Dalman C Questionable Ankle
Drake London WR Questionable Hip

NO

Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Out Hamstring
Chris Olave WR Out Concussion
Lucas Patrick G Out Ankle
Cedrick Wilson WR Out Shoulder
Erik McCoy C Doubtful Groin
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Groin
Will Harris S Questionable Hamstring
Shane Lemieux G Questionable Knee
Nephi Sewell LB Questionable Knee
J.T. Gray S Questionable Back
Rico Payton CB Questionable Back
John Ridgeway DT Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17
–
NO 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:55 FG NO (14:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. ATL 0 – NO 3
  • Q2 10:57 TD NO (10:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NO 9
  • Q2 05:48 TD ATL (5:48) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NO 10
  • Q2 03:51 TD NO (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – NO 16
  • Q3 05:46 FG ATL (5:46) 6-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-31-J.Howden has returned to the game. ATL 10 – NO 17
  • Q3 02:48 FG NO (2:48) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. ATL 10 – NO 20
  • Q3 01:10 TD ATL (1:10) 7-B.Robinson right end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – NO 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (7:04) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle to ATL 5 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 55-K.Elliss).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (5:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NO 44, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (14:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 73%

    (12:11) 6-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (5:48) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (:19) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-J.Ridgeway), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:50) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to ATL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-36-R.Payton.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:46) 6-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-31-J.Howden has returned to the game.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (2:48) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:57) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to ATL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to NO 20, Center-49-L.McCullough. 80-J.Jackson to NO 38 for 18 yards (51-D.Malone; 25-T.Allgeier).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 29%

    (11:50) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 84%

    (6:43) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:21) 43-M.Hayball punts 51 yards to ATL 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 26-A.Williams to ATL 19 for 8 yards (38-M.Bradford).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:42) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 54%

    (:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-R.McCloud pushed ob at NO 44 for -1 yards (0-U.Amadi).