4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 6-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP