Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(13:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.78 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model