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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(:19) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-J.Ridgeway), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.01 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model