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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.36 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model