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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-R.McCloud pushed ob at NO 44 for -1 yards (0-U.Amadi).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.76 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP