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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle to ATL 5 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +3.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.07 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model