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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NO 44, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.06 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP